Steely Cam’s 2023 Draft Wish List

First and foremost I hope Steelers’ brass elects to stay on 17 (no pun intended) instead of risking a bust by trading up (that one was intended). That goes double if the name in question is Jalen Carter; I’ve made my thoughts very clear about him.

Methodology: I ran 50 iterations of the draft on PFF’s simulator and tallied the most frequent selections. If any of these guys make you go “he’ll never be available there” take it up with PFF, not me. I didn’t klutz around with any trades because their trade logic is…I’m not sure what the word would be, “broken” implies it once worked.

R1 (17)

CB Joey Porter Jr

The son of Steelers Legend Joey Porter was a consensus 2022 First Team All-B1G & Penn State’s defensive MVP. Although his technique can be sloppy at times his great recovery and 34″ arms afford significant margin for error.

Don’t believe everything you’ve heard He actually has decent ball skills that didn’t translate to box scores because QBs were terrified of him. He drew undue attention from officials in college because he shares a name with a former pro but he worked hard to curtail that this year (only 2 flags).

DB Brian Branch

The thing that jumps off the tape for this 2022 second team All-American is elite tackling and instincts. He’s never fooled by fakes, misdirection or ballcarrier moves; he missed only 4 tackles in 174 opportunities through his collegiate career (2.3%).

His range is maximized on the back-end; although he played all over the field at Alabama I’m not sure he can stick with your shiftier NFL slots. The testing admittedly didn’t line up with the production but his stat line in the Sugar Bowl is eye-popping: 12 tackles, 4 TFLs, 1 sack, 1 INT.

R2 (32)

OT Dawand Jones

Elite length/width/strength with plenty of athleticism for his size. You can’t get through him you need to go around; with his size you better get a snack and use the bathroom before that trip. Boy can he finish a block: I filled a Twitter highlight video just with instances of him putting defenders on the ground…and I only pulled four of his games.

Much ado about nothing You may have read that the Steelers were less-than-impressed with Jones’ decision to forego much of the testing at the Combine and Ohio State’s Pro Day. He also pulled out of the Senior Bowl after one [legendary] day of practice. He’s far from the first NFL prospect to pick his spots with the measurables. Don’t for one second think he came off anyone’s draft board, but he may have taken himself out of potential “reach” territory.

DL Mazi Smith

This kid caught my eye at the Combine, where he put up more reps on the bench than any other DL prospect. He blends that elite strength with above-average athleticism, especially for his size. That means he can push pockets but he’d also be a great stunting partner with Cam Heyward.

Smith consistently drew double teams at Michigan but it would be hard to devote two to him on a defensive front with Heyward and Watt. I did notice, however, that it seems like conditioning can be an issue on long drives.

R2 (49)

OLB Felix Anudike-Uzomah

The Steelers recorded only 8 sacks in the 7 games TJ missed last year; in 3 of those games they had zero. The 2022 Big12 DPoY could be the bread that holds Watt’s peanut butter and Highsmith’s jelly together. He had 13 sacks in 2021; only 2 college players recorded more.

Felix is a refined pass rusher with a plan and impressive measurables: his agility (6.94 three-cone) and explosiveness (124” broad) are both in the 90+ percentiles. He has the bendability to get around the edge in addition to being a speed-to-power threat. The aforementioned agility makes him another natural complement as a looper in the stunt game.

CB Julius Brents

If JPJ goes early (and he very well could) Brents is a good second-tier option. This 2022 first team All-Big12 selection has great sizelength, best-in class broad jump & 41.5” vert for high-pointing. While not an elite runner, that explosiveness makes him a hero-killer in the red zone.

Brents has the agility to stick with those shifty slots I mentioned earlier. His ball skills (4 INT’s in 2022) put him in that archetype of ballhawks that this new management team has telegraphed is so important to them. Having said that, he can get caught staring into backfield.

R3 (80)

OLB Nick Herbig

If the name sounds familiar it’s because his brother (Nasty Nate) is already a Steeler. Elite production (11 sacks/15.5 TFL’s/2 FF’s) earned Nick a First Team All-B1G selection in 2022, but he caught my eye last year while scouting those Wisconsin LB’s who came out last Spring.

As alluded above Herbig shows a full arsenal of pass rush moves. He’s significantly weaker vs the run but that’s fine for what this team needs. He needs to work on his approach against power – OSU’s massive tackles shut him out – but so did TJ Watt when he was drafted.

S Ji’Ayir Brown

Pronunciation guide for yinzers: soft J+eye+ear; if that’s still too difficult to wrap your pallet around, just call him Tig. The co-MVP of the 2023 Rose Bowl epitomizes the phrase “high motor.” He led Power Five safeties in sacks last year & college football in INTs the year before.

With elite strength and agility Brown can set an edge in the run game and rotate through covering slot receivers. Teryl Austin would be wringing his hands menacingly thinking about the various schemes he could employ with Tig, Minkah and Kazee on the back-end of his defense.

R4 (120)

WR Charlie Jones

This pick was made before the Allen Robinson new broke. Speaking of which: Penn State fans will remember this kid terrorizing us in the 2022 season opener, to the tune of 12 catches for 153 yards. He finished the year 1st in the draft class in contested catches (22), 2nd in receiving yards (1361) and 2nd in 1st downs (63) w/ 8 games over 100 yards. He even brings punt return experience (1 muff in 76 chances in college).

How does a guy with such elite hands and production slip all the way to the fourth, I feel you asking? Take a look at his fairly lopsided web chart: he’s a “tweener” whose size relegates him to the slot at the next level but that’s fine for this team. 

ILB Dorian Williams

Elite speed (95th percentile 40) makes him a potential sideline-to-sideline guy as a MACK LB. He only had two games last year in which he allowed double-digit YAC. His 133 tackles in 2022 ranked 2nd in the draft class…in the class, not at his position.

Williams is also a capable blitzer, registering 22 pressures in 2022. Playing behind three of the best 30 pass rushers on the planet should give him plenty of opportunities to do damage. It’s fair to wonder how his production will translate to the NFL from the AAC but the measurables are encouraging.

“How do you solve a problem like [Trubisky]?”

The [South] Hills are alive with the sound of…salary cap debate.

The Steelers are currently on the red side of the balance sheet with 24 pending free agents/voiding contracts to replace. Restructures will provide some breathing room but there’s no two ways about it: cuts are coming.

The only real no-brainer here is William Jackson III’s $12.2 million cap hit. The guy couldn’t find the field last year and certainly won’t at that figure.

Myles Jack ($11.3 million) did get on the field but he was clearly playing through a nagging injury that eventually forced Robert Spillane above him on the depth chart. The only thread holding Jack here is Devin Bush’s desire to burn every bridge in and around the 412. There will be at least one new starting MLB come Week One, and he probably wasn’t on the roster in 2022.

Chuks Okorafor ($13.1 million) is the dark-horse cut candidate not many people are talking about, primarily because they’re talking about Dan Moore. I’m currently in the process of cutting up the “Best Of 2022” for both of them and I can attest Moore’s reel is much, MUCH longer. Were I calling the shots I’d take the best OT available at 17 (sorry, JPJ-stans), leave him at his natural position and put Dan Moore on the other end.

Which brings us back to doe: Mitchell Trubisky and his $10.6 million. Many fans have some arbitrary limit in their minds as to what you’re allowed to pay a backup QB. Those rules don’t apply to teams whose starter is on a rookie deal ($3.2 million this year for Kenny). With the third guy they’re sure to bring in to replace the disgruntled Mason Rudolph they’ll probably be paying their QB room around $16 million (going on $17 million).

Anyone who was paying attention to the Purdy-saga in San Fran knows if you’re a team who plans on going the distance you almost NEED two starting-caliber guys. That’s less feasible for a Mahomes-led team but again: when your starter is making peanuts you can afford that security blanket.

$2.7 million of Trubisky’s contract is guaranteed so the team would only save $8 million by shaking him loose. Then you still have to replace him. You’re not finding a better backup than Mitch for less than $8 million, you’re just not.

Art Rooney told Bob Pompeani he views Trubisky as an “effective” backup who can win games when called upon. Mitch undeniably upped the level of play when he relieved a concussed Pickett against the Bucs. Say what you will about the three picks in the first Ravens game but Kenny was running for his life against that defense – for good reason.

Believe it or not the analytics indicate Trubisky’s a starting-caliber player. If the Steelers could get a second-round pick back for Chase Claypool surely they could get some sort of return for Mitch instead of just getting out from under his contract.

Kenny vs Mitch (2022)

Steelers Handle Business vs. Browns

On a day we had our attention split between three different screens (thank you, privilege) the Steelers were singularly focused DeShaun Watson’s first appearance at Acrisure Stadium. The Welcoming Committee dropped off a lovely gift basket full of festive nuts, two INT’s, seven sacks, (sing this last part with me, to the tune of “12 Days of Christmas”) and a 28-14 defeat.

HB Najee Harris had a TD on the Steelers’ first drive but it was called short on the field. Instead of challenging the ruling Mike Tomlin and Co elected to try a quick QB sneak. After that was stuffed, Naj tried to go over the top but the Browns plugged the middle and punched the ball loose, recovering at their five yard line.

There was another near-miscue when WR Diontae Johnson dropped a pass going over the middle. On the field it was ruled a catch-and-fumble but upon review (as all turnovers are) they got it right.

Cleveland’s first two drives were each hampered by holding penalties and both ended in punts. The Browns’ tackles appeared completely overmatched by the Steelers’ EDGE rushers; it was only a matter of time until those dams splintered.

OLB TJ Watt was the first one through, sandwiching Watson with DE Cam Heyward on the Browns’ third drive as the first quarter expired. Heyward tracked down Karim Hunt (another guy with a shady history of violence against women) for a loss on third down to force a third punt.

Cleveland was able to punch it into the end zone on their fourth drive, with the help of a holding penalty from MLB Rob Spillane negating what would have been a 3rd down stop.

The word of the day for the Steelers was “effort.” QB Kenny Pickett eluded the first rusher, got off a shovel pass as he got crunched, then HB Jaylen Warren made his first guy miss and split the next two to get within an index card’s breadth from the lead stick:

Three plays later Kenny threw a dart over the middle to WR George Pickens:

Pickens ties it at 7

Moments later, this happened:

I foresaw these events just a few days ago:

Pickens had another sensational back-shoulder catch, and most of Steelers Nation thinks he had a second one moments later. It appeared Pickens’ left foot was dragging grass in bounds, but his right foot may or may not have been levitating as George gained control of the ball. Because we can’t reasonably rule out a human levitating, the call stood. Pittsburgh settled for a FG to take the lead, 10-7 PIT.

TJ tracked down a Watson scramble on 1st down and Cam Heyward nearly recorded another INT batting down a pass on 2nd, but a 3rd down conversion gave Cleveland the ball just shy of midfield with :07 in the first half. Watson fumbled the snap and busted out a couple pirouettes before ultimately being dogpiled after a two-yard gain.

The Steelers opened the second half with some Matt Canada football. They ran a split zone with jet motion…wait a second, that’s a counter run, there’s a lead blocker, and WOO BUDDY HE’S GOT A LANE!

Kenny marched his boys into the red zone, but Myles Garrett’s first sack of the day brought an end to the 12-play drive. K Chris Boswell back out for his second FG attempt…and make. 13-7 PIT

Every ounce of momentum was flowing Pittsburgh’s way. TJ collapsed the RT into Watson’s throwing arm to force an incompletion on 1st down. 2nd down was a Chubb stretch run snuffed out by TJ and DT Larry Ogunjobi before it could get east-west, let alone north. On 3rd down Watson stutter stepped over TJ’s diving arms and escaped for a 21-yard scamper. 1st down was an unsuccessful Chubb run. 2nd down was a SACK by Terrell Edmunds. Watson stared down his target on 3rd down and FS Damontae Kazee made him pay with the second Steelers’ INT of the contest.

(Meanwhile, Buffalo returned their second KO of the day for a TD to retake a 20-17 lead over the Patriots. Still waiting on the Jets to bring it together.)

Najee ran three times for 18 yards, then on 3rd&3 Jaylen Warren relieved him and leaked out to catch a pass to give the Steelers a 1st&Goal opportunity. A 1st down RPO intended for an open Johnson was batted down by Garrett over the middle. They went back to Najee on 2nd; he found a crease for half the distance but had to do the rest himself…and he could not be denied. Pittsburgh’s second TD of the game gave them a 20-7 stranglehold over proceedings.

A missed facemask penalty preserved a 2nd down sack for Larry Ogunjobi, and TJ recorded the team’s fourth sack of the afternoon to slam the door shut on 3rd down.

There was a scary moment when Warren couldn’t secure a 1st down toss but G Kevin Dotson jumped on the loose ball. A two-yard Najee run later and Pittsburgh took their 20-7 lead into the 4th quarter, but a 3rd down drop left them in a must-punt situation.

Chubb started off the next drive running through Heyward and into the safeties, but Cam sandwiched the avowed sex criminal with Highsmith for a one-yard profit on the next snap. Cam recorded what should have been the Steelers’ fifth sack of the game but it was negated by personal foul. Two plays later Cleveland cashed in that gift with a TD pass to Chubb, to bring the drive full circle.

When Pittsburgh had the ball, the flags mysteriously seemed to be pocketed. Backed up against the wall Kenny found Connor Heyward on another deep middle hookup, where the rookie TE has been living this year:

Later that drive, on a 3rd&8, Heyward did it again with a 9-yard catch on a slant, bringing up 1st&Goal. 3rd&G was a slant looking for Pickens that created a DPI and gave Pittsburgh four more cracks at it. The next snap Heyward motioned left across the formation; as Cleveland’s defense rolled left to adjust they went back the other way with the Matt Canada sweep to Derek Watt. For good measure they converted an end zone fade to Diontae for a two-point conversion. 28-14 PIT

With no time left to run the ball and Cleveland’s offense growing ever more predictable, TJ, Alex and Cam all triangulated to collapse on Watson at the same moment for Pittsburgh’s fifth sack. There were still whimpers of life with the Browns converting a 4th&6 just before the two-minute warning. Pittsburgh’s sixth sack of the day was of the strip sack variety, but Cleveland recovered. Alex Highsmith recorded their seventh sack, and Heyward had the eighth to slam the door shut on the game.

(I counted 8 sacks, ESPN only has then down for 7…)

FINAL SCORE: 28-14 PIT

Pittsburgh handled their business today, and so did Buffalo. Joe Flacco: you had one job to do.