Coming out of the bye the Steelers are in a good place, health-wise. Mike Tomlin said in his Tuesday presser he anticipates availability won’t be an issue for any of his (active) players leading up to Sunday’s road matchup with the Cleveland Browns. TE Eric Ebron had some hamstring tightness that limited his Thursday practice reps, but I don’t see that affecting the two targets he’s likely to see this week.

For the Browns, the exact opposite is true: they had 17 players listed on the initial Wednesday injury report. WR Donovan People-Jones, CB Denzel Ward & DE Jadeveon Clowney didn’t practice at all this week. Their offensive line will likely be missing their starting C JC Tretter, and two of the three tackles on their active roster were limited in practice all week.

Speaking of playing hurt, QB Baker Mayfield has a torn ligament in his non-throwing shoulder and missed their last game, but he’s practicing with the starters this week and wants the green light. WRs Jarvis Landry and Odell Beckham Jr have also been limited. Divisional games at home skew towards the “must-win” end of the spectrum, so you can bet anyone on their side who’s close will want to play.

The guys we know won’t be out there are the 12 (oof) on injured reserve: most notably LB Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, T Chris Hubbard and RB Kareem Hunt. JOK was having a strong rookie campaign; when he was hurt in the fourth quarter of the Cardinals game two weeks ago he led the team in tackles (29) and passes defended (4). Hubbard was the Steelers’ swing tackle a few years back but left for a starting gig with Cleveland. Hunt is…well he’s Ray Rice with a job.

Cleveland boasts the NFL’s best rushing attack: without Hunt they still have an all-pro in the backfield in Nick Chubb. They’re going to need to lean on that ground game with Mayfield and anyone he might throw a pass to being less than 100%. Having said that, Chubb was also limited all week in practice, so it may be another D’Ernest Johnson Day. He looks to build on the coming-out party he showed last week against the Broncos (22 carries, 146 yards).

By yardage, their defense is ranked seventh against the pass and second vs the run. They’re third in sacks, primarily on the strength of their DEs: Myles Garrett leads the NFL with 9.5 and Jadeveon Clowney – despite an inauspicious start to his Browns career⬇️ – has ponied up 3.5.

K Chase McLaughlin served with five different teams his first two seasons in the NFL but has played all seven games for Cleveland this year and appears to be sticking. He’s perfect on XP’s and 10/11 on FG attempts (4/4 from 50+ yards, including a 57-yarder). Don’t feel secure with a late lead less than four points; he could steal one.

Keys to the Game

1) Know your gap and commit to it. The last time we saw the Steelers’ defense they were getting gashed by the Seahawks’ backup running back. Many of those wounds were self-inflicted (overrunning gaps, a Benny Hill mixtape of missed tackles) and that needs to be tidied up. Have I mentioned Cleveland is the best rushing team in the NFL?

2) “Situational Ball” The Browns have allowed the NFL’s fifth-highest third-down conversion rate. Extending drives wears down opposing defenses, takes the crowd out of the game, gives your defense more time to recover on the sideline and chips away at their confidence. Our defense has the ability to stand tall on short fields, but the more tackles you ask them to make the less likely they’ll have success. Steelers/Browns games historically have come down to the possession battle, which also means PH3 could be called upon in a key moment to flip the field. It’s difficult for a punter to win a game, but they sure can lose one.

3) Limit Garrett’s opportunities coming downhill Throw screens and swing passes over Myles Garrett’s shoulder. Make him take redundant steps and waste energy chasing plays. If you want Ben to drop back, chip Garrett with a TE and/or leave the RB in to pass protect; we don’t need to see a ton of 5-man routes because Ben rarely gets that deep into his progression anyway. Nobody else on the Browns’ front really scares you, especially if Clowney can’t go. You can triple-team Myles all day if you want to.

4) Reinforcements for Najee! RB Anthony McFarland was activated this week after spending the first 7 weeks on IR. Backup RBs Benny Snell and Kalen Ballage total 36 yards on 14 attempts. Although the talent levels clearly aren’t even, those three runners represent redundant skill sets. McFarland will provide a legitimate change of pace that hasn’t been there for this team.

The extent to which they’ll employ two-RB sets remains to be seen; before Juju went down for the year it was hard imagining who Matt Canada would take off the field to bring in an extra RB. In 2018 Jaylen Samuels ran the Wildcat to great success against the Patriots, and we haven’t seen the Wildcat since. Offensive schemes like that are entirely match-up contingent, but it may prove to be the secret to unraveling this Browns run defense.