Steelers rally late, topple Titans 19-13

Today was an important reminder that defenses win games, too.

Pittsburgh spotted Tennessee a free 10 points and it was 13-3 at halftime. The offense was flat all day, until halfway through the third quarter when TE Pat Freiermuth made a first-down catch over the middle and hung on, despite taking a hard, illegal hit and appearing to briefly lose consciousness.

After a long injury timeout, TE Zach Gentry caught a TE screen and ran for 17 yards, helped by a stiff-arm that would make Vance McDonald proud. The next snap was RB Najee Harris’s best run of the day: a seven-yard thumper which he finished with another stiff-arm to S Kevin Byard. The next play was a fade to WR Chase Claypool that drew a DPI in the end zone, setting the Steelers up at the one.

First down
Second down
Third down

That was the Steelers’ only TD of the day. When I say the offense was flat, I mean to the tune of 2-11 on third down, held to 35 rushing yards and only had 133 passing yards. Flat Stanley was spotted in the bleachers at Heinz, taking notes.

As it turns out, a lot of those offensive issues are spackled over when your defense sets you up on the opponent’s side of the field not once, not twice, not THREE, but FOUR TIMES. All four of those turnovers created short fields that turned into field goals. K Chris Boswell made his fantasy owners happy, converting 4/5 field goals (he left a 56-yarder 2-3 yards short) and their one PAT.

The Steelers’ defense didn’t allow a point in the second half. In six possessions, the Titans punted twice, lost two fumbles, threw a pick and ended the game with a turnover-on downs. That’s four take-aways in the second half and five on the day for Pittsburgh.

At various points during this game the home fans were heard on the broadcast chanting “MVP” in appreciation of OLB TJ Watt’s efforts. He had 5 tackles, 4 solo, 1 for a loss, 1.5 SACKS, 3 QB hits and recovered a fumble. That may not sound like a transcendent performance, but he was consistently dealing with this:

CB Joe Haden made his return to the field after missing the last four games with a foot injury. He recovered a fumble forced by fellow CB Cam Sutton, and made the key fourth down stick in the fourth quarter that ended a 13-play drive and won the game.

Are Running Backs Worth First-Round Picks?

* “Seasons” is defined as at least 25 rushing attempts, to adjust for injury availability.

The Framework

The last time the Steelers drafted a runner in the first round was 2008 (Rashard Mendenhall, Illinois). Let’s say the jury is still out on the players drafted 2018 or sooner. That gives us a solid 10 years of data to analyze (2008-2017).

The Findings

Only 7/20 (35%) of running backs drafted in the first-round signed a new contract with the team that drafted them.

On average, the RB’s studied spent 5.01 years with their drafting team. Their average total career length was 6.2 seasons (adjusted for injury time missed).

Four of these “can’t miss” guys failed to play out their rookie deals.

5/20 (25%) of the RB’s studied are no longer on an NFL roster today. For comparison, 49.5% of non-RB’s drafted in the first round over that span are still active. See below:

The Spin

On average, RB’s taken in the first round play out their rookie contract (four years and a fifth-year option) and are out of the NFL about a season later.

Adrian Peterson (36) is the oldest RB in the NFL, but he wasn’t on a roster until Week 9 when Tennessee gave him a look filling in for the fallen Derrick Henry. The second-oldest RB’s are 31 (Latavius Murray, Carlos Hyde, Rex Burkhead and Brandon Bolden). That’s a lot of years of retirement to financially plan for.

The graph of “player survival rate” shown above is the most damning data. RB’s are about twice as likely as any other position to last less than 10 years in the NFL. Draft any position OTHER than RB, and you double your chances of having a stud who’s still contributing a decade later.

If you’re an NFL team that employs a plug-and-play approach with free agency, you can afford to take a couple swings at bottling thunder with a big-time runner or an electric return specialist. For teams that pride themselves on the draft-and-develop model, first-round picks need to be tent-pole, three-contract guys (Ben Roethlisberger, Cam Heyward, and TJ Watt when he inevitably signs the extension that ensures he retires a Steeler).

I mean no denigration to Najee Harris; I think he’ll be a very solid asset in Pittsburgh for the life of his rookie contract, when available. IMO, the Steelers would have been better off pursuing the DeCastro/Pouncey blueprint, but I’m certainly not complaining about runs like these:

Najee Harris is special

Week 15 Preview: vs. Titans

The Tennessee Titans come to Heinz Field this weekend as a 9-4 team full of holes.

Tennessee will be short on weapons with their leading rusher and receiver (RB Derrick Henry, WR AJ Brown) both on IR. Henry is 4th in the NFL in rushing attempts, yards and TD’s, despite not playing since Week 8. He’s still working back from that injury and won’t be a factor in this game, which is fantastic news for a Steelers defense that has opposing RB’s licking their chops.

Even without a transcendent back like Henry, the Titans remain committed to their rushing identity. Last weekend in a 36-13 loss to the Patriots, Titans RB’s D’onta Foreman and Dontrell Hilliard both eclipsed 100 rushing yards on 31 combined attempts while QB Ryan Tannehill threw only 21 passes.

To be fair, in that game they were missing seven-time Pro-Bowl WR Julio Jones, acquired via trade from the Falcons this summer. His production has also been hampered by availability this year, but we all know what that guy’s capable of if you can get him the ball.

Therein lies the struggle. Tannehill has 13 INT’s on the season which is tied with Lamar Jackson for third-most and one behind the league lead. He’s also the third-most sacked QB in the NFL, one behind Jackson and three back of Joe Burrow (Ben is 7th). This is a guy you want to turn up the heat on.

That could mean big days for the Steelers’ primary pass rushers: OLB’s TJ Watt and Alex Highsmith. Both were questionable for this week after leaving last Thursday’s game against the Vikings with lower body injuries, but both practiced in full on Thursday and reportedly plan to play this week.

S Kevin Byard – PFF’s #1-graded safety – has stacked five INT’s (3rd) and 16 PD’s (6th) on the season. A splashy defender, he’s added a pick-six and a scoop-and-score in his sixth year in Tennessee to a resume that already boasted an eight-INT season (2017). He was the AFC’s Defensive Player of the Month for November, and has a knack for being where the ball ends up.

OLB Harold Landry III is having a heck of a contract year, recording 11.0 sacks (8th), 13 TFL’s and 20 QBH’s, all career-highs. His pre-draft athleticism measurables topped the charts for EDGE rushers. He can get around you in a hurry and once he makes you over-commit his inside counters are lethal. Rookie LT Dan Moore Jr has a full plate this week.

Some familiar faces join Landry in the OLB room: Bud Dupree and Ola Adeniyi. Dupree was activated this week to the Designated to Return list; if he plays Sunday he’ll be on a pitch count. Adeniyi is the only other healthy EDGE rusher on their roster (Derick Roberson is questionable with an illness) so depth could be an issue.