Wildcard Preview/Keys to the Game: Steelers @ Chiefs

1) Don’t help Mahomes “Mahomes” you

You’ve got one of the top-two interior defenders, the best edge rusher, and the best center-fielder in the NFL in Cam Heyward, TJ Watt and Minkah Fitzpatrick. On paper, that three-headed monster should give you a puncher’s chance to hang with any team in this league.

Pat Mahomes is different. He doesn’t conform to the rules of the sport, or physics. Push the pocket on Patrick and he’ll pirouette right out of it. If you blitz him, he only becomes stronger. He’s the best the world has ever seen at looking defenders off his targets; hell, he doesn’t even need to be looking where he throws!

Scary stuff, especially considering how comfortable he looked while dismantling the Steelers when last they met, lo those three weeks ago. So what’s the plan of attack?

First and foremost, don’t put more bullets in their gun. Ben loves those RPO crossers, but surely the Chiefs are aware of that as well. If the Steelers give the Chiefs even one extra possession with a turnover, the playing field gets a lot steeper.

Defensively, look for the “mush rush.” This is a concept in which penetration takes a back seat to containment: the edge rushers are careful to sacrifice containment by over-pursuing while the inside guys control rushing lanes.

Instead of traditional “half-man” pass rush sets, look for “two-gapping” on the interior: defenders lining up head-on with offensive lineman so they can control the block with their eyes in the backfield, then shed the block to make a tackle to either their left or right. It’s a bit of a lost art in today’s NFL, but Isaiahh Loudermilk is one of the better two-tappers on this team. Watch for #92.

2) King of the “Hill”

Chiefs WR Tyreek Hill has sub-4.3 40 speed, and the Steelers defense, well, doesn’t. Joe Haden is by all accounts a fantastic leader, he’s easily my favorite former-Brown and I’ll forever love him for this:

Joe Haden picks off Tom Brady in the Steelers’ 2018 victory over the Patriots

God bless the guy, but he can’t run anymore; even the famously-hapless Gilligan could escape “Haden Island.” So who’s the next man up?

Ahkello Witherspoon is a guy they brought in before the season for depth, but he’s a RAS-ier (Relative Athletic Score) corner who should be more able to run with the Hills, Diggs and Chases of the world.

After a slow start, Witherspoon came on strong down the stretch with 3 INT’s and 7 PBU’s in his last 5 games. He’s made some sensational plays under-cutting routes, but Mahomes’ eyes are harder to read than Kirk Cousins’.

Do you throw him out there and ask him to play one-on-one with Hill? Absolutely not, that’s not a one-man job. He’ll probably have Minkah’s help over the top, freeing him up to pounce on those intermediate routes.

3) “Kelce” about that

The Steelers have been rather successful at quieting the impact of the opponents most dangerous offensive weapons this year. That’ll be a stout task today, as the Chiefs have two guys who can wreck your gameplan.

Travis Kelce is one of the best over the middle, an area of the field the Steelers have struggled mightily in recent history. So what has to happen to keep Kelce from running wild through the heart of this defense?

It starts with the MLB’s, particularly Devin Bush. He’s been a bit of a lightning rod this year; while some of that criticism is warranted, he’s consistently dealing with climbing offensive linemen because the Steelers’ defensive trenches have been decimated. Fans have wanted him to play more downhill, but that’s never been what he does.

As the off-ball ILB he’s playing the primary coverage role over the middle. He has supreme ball skills for a MLB; he could make Mahomes pay for getting too cocky with those no-look balls.

Another name to keep in mind here is Witherspoon. In addition to his athleticism, he’s also quite long (meaning height/wingspan) for a corner. You need wings like that to take on the 6’5” Kelce.

4) “That’s my Quarterback”

Steeler Nation rejoiced yesterday when Juju Smith-Schuster was activated from what we believed was a season-ending shoulder injury he sustained on a jet sweep against the Broncos in Week 5.

We’ll see how much a factor conditioning and rustiness play in his contributions, but having #19 out there – even on a pitch count – should prove massive for Roethlisberger, who has sorely missed his third down safety blanket.

The aspect of Juju’s game this team missed most, however, is his run blocking. Diontae and (more so, of late) Claypool show effort in that arena, but neither of those guys are going to knock Vontaze Burfict on his butt. Having Juju out there will be big for Ben, but it’s huge for Najee.

Steelers defeat clipped-wing Ravens 16-13 (OT)

The Big Ben era isn’t over quite yet.

The hard part happened first, when the two-win Jaguars – playing for nothing but Glory – stunned the Colts and ended their playoff aspirations.

In the history of the sport there has never been an “easy” NFL game, but this Ravens team had 17 players on injured reserve and 17 others missed practice time this week due to injury/illness. There weren’t a lot of bullets in that gun today for John Harbaugh.

Under the leadership of undrafted free agent QB Tyler Huntley, the Ravens committed four turnovers today, including on each of their first three drives (Watt FF/Mondeaux FR, Edmunds INT, unsuccessful fake punt).

OLB TJ Watt tied the NFL’s single-season sack record (22.5, M. Strahan) just before intermission. He would have owned the record, but a sack he split with DE Cam Heyward was negated when Heyward was flagged for a helmet-to-helmet hit.

Freezing rain was falling heavily in the morning, slowed periodically but never stopped. Field traction was clearly an issue, and it was just 3-3 at the half.

That didn’t last long. Five plays into the third quarter, RB Latavius Murray broke free up the middle for a 46-yard TD run. The Ravens took a 10-3 lead that felt quite steep for the conditions.

Pittsburgh answered that TD with a FG and – after exchanging three-and-outs – Murray had consecutive explosive runs (22- and 27-yarders) to get his boys marching again. They drove down to Pittsburgh’s 11 yard line (with the help of a 2-yard QB sneak on 4th and 1), but then Huntley tried to force a ball in the TE Mark Andrews which CB Cam Sutton picked off in the end zone.

Another punt exchange later, the Steelers finally found the end zone with a 6-yard TD pass from QB Ben Roethlisberger to WR Chase Claypool.

Their 13-10 lead was quickly leveled with a Justin Tucker 46-yarder. Two more punts (15 total punts for the game) and we were on to OT.

RB Najee Harris lost his shoe while being tackled on the game’s opening drive. He also suffered an unrelated elbow injury on that play, and didn’t return until the Steelers’ second drive of the second half. He mostly found the sledding rough out there today, but he did have a huge 15-yard run during their 15-play OT drive. That run set up the kneel-down that set up the Boswell FG that won the game.

If the Raiders and Chargers game doesn’t end in a tie, Roethlisberger will get one last shot at the playoffs.

Why T.J. Watt is the Defensive Player of the Year

With two less games played than the rest of the field, the NFL’s highest-paid edge rusher is living up to his cashflow.

Per ESPN, Pro Football Reference

T.J. Watt is 1st in the NFL in sacks and QB hits, and he’s tied for 1st in tackles for loss, fumble recoveries, and – for you analytics eggheads – Pass Rush Productivity. He leads all other candidates in, well, just about every statistical category. No other candidate leads in more than two categories.

Watt needs one more sack to tie – and 1.5 to break – Michael Strahan’s single-season sack record. T.J. can clear a spot on the mantle for the trophy if he breaks that record this Sunday against the Ravens, a team against which he’s traditionally feasted.

A dark-horse candidate whose name I’ve heard floated is the Cowboys’ Trevon Diggs. The sophomore CB’s 11 interceptions are a lofty pedestal, and Stephon Gilmore won the DPoY award in 2019 on the strength of a six-INT campaign. Here’s why that won’t happen this year:

“You got to know when to hold ’em” Diggs is the third-most targeted defender in the NFL, according to Pro Football Focus. With that many at-bats you’re gonna run into a homer or two; you’re also going to have a lot of ugly strikeouts. No qualifying cornerback (minimum 50% of 679 coverage snaps) has allowed more yards, yards/reception or yards after the catch. “Diggs Island”? Hardly.

Spin the record The NFL is a sacks league. Breaking Strahan’s record would be the defining defensive performance of the 2021 NFL season. 20 years from now those of us who remember 2021 will remember it as the year T.J. Watt broke the sack record, not the year some guy came kind of close to tying the INT record.

Get on the train The one thing that could trump Watt’s record is breaking the single-season INT record. Diggs’ won’t scratch the record of 14 Dick “Night Train” Lane set as a rookie in 1952.

Love the record, love the name, love that he did it as a ROOKIE, and love that it has stood for 69 years.