DT Jordan Davis (Georgia)

[Games reviewed: Kentucky, Alabama (the SEC Championship game, not the National Championship), Arkansas, Clemson]

Davis is the brass ring of the DT class. He tested off the charts for a guy of his size at the NFL Combine. I won’t bore you with the measurables – I’m sure you’ve seen them elsewhere – suffice it to say he’s fast and explosive…for a guy of his size.

Sorry about that, too early to get bitchy. I’ll start with the “nice” before getting back to the “naughty.”

The Tape

What the four-year starter did best in the middle of that fearsome Bulldog front was eat space. He alters game plans, forcing opponents to either stretch the edges or devote multiple guys (two-four) inside to moving him.

Jordan Davis vs Kentucky 2021 – Double Team Super-cut

There are a number of benefits to having a guy who consistently commands double-teams:

  • Allows LB’s to roam free behind him
  • Creates favorable matchups for DE’s vs TE’s
  • Limits the offense’s power running options (you can’t pull interior linemen when all three of them are blocking Jordan)

That explosiveness I alluded to earlier caught a lot of linemen off-guard (no pun intended). Most of his wins I saw started with a quick, lateral first step:

Jordan Davis first step

That last play is a good example of his speed-to-power game, which you don’t see a lot of from interior linemen. After establishing the speed threat he gets his match-up thinking “I gotta beat him to his spot or he’s going right around me.” Davis drops it back down to first gear and steamrolls right over his guy.

From speed, to speed-to-power, leads us to Davis’s power game. He can stand you and walk you back, he’s got a good swim/arm-over move and good arm length to boot (34″):

Two-gapping is a bit of a dying art in an NFL more and more predicated on speed, but take a look at these run stuffing reps. Davis stands his guy up and controls the block while keeping his eyes in the backfield. Once the RB declares a lane Davis disposes of his blocker effortlessly and fills that lane:

Remember earlier when I said he forces offenses to run around rather than through him? Well, turns out that doesn’t necessarily negate him:

Jordan Davis vs. outside zone running

Davis is an OSHA-certified “Load” but the rumors of his immortality have been greatly exaggerated. Here’s three clips of him being negated 1v1 by a Sophomore guard who’s just a couple sandwiches north of 300:

You’ve probably read that he has “heavy hands” which refers to his ability to negate his opponents’ hand-fighting, as well as his ability to land his own jabs despite his opponents’ efforts to negate his hand-fighting. I’d like to modify that (s/o to Andy Bernard): he plays with violent hands early in reps (see above), but his “turbo meter” drains fast and he’s prone to stalling out:

As I alluded to in the prior tweet, stamina/conditioning are a concern. Even when he was on the field there wasn’t a lot of the second- and third-effort playmaking that you’d like to see from a defender in 2022. Despite starting for four years, Davis only logged 64 career tackles in 40 games played. If you’re keeping track at home, that works out to barely 1.5 per game.

That wouldn’t necessarily be a deal-breaker for a team such as the Steelers who already have top-flight DL talent they’d like to keep fresher throughout games. Definitely a “buyer beware” situation, though.

The Take

Davis is a rare blend of power, speed and technique, and he’ll contribute immediately. The concern there is how MUCH he can contribute.

It’s easy to imagine the elevator pitch, especially for Steelers fans: “Casey Hampton, but fast…for a guy his size.” But would Casey Hampton be as effective in 2022 as he was in 2002? Even towards the end of Hampton’s playing career I remember people talking about how the nose tackle position was going the way of the hockey goon.

The modern game of football is all about mobility. Mahomes, Josh Allen, Lamar, Deshaun…all 11 of your defenders need to be athletes. I know, I know, he’s fast (for his size) but not so much compared to the guys named above. When you’re 340+ it’s hard for opponents to move you, but you know what else is hard when you’re 340+? Moving yourself.

Brandon Smith will be the steal of the 2022 NFL Draft

For the cross-section of us who are Steelers fans as well as Penn State fans, this won’t be anything new to you. For you #H2P folks, put on a cup of coffee and hear me out.

Smith is a long, rangey LB with explosion (36″ vertical jump out of high school🤯), a violent finish, and versatility to play the MIKE, SAM or WILL in Penn State’s 4-3 front.

Brandon didn’t play in Penn State’s Outback Bowl berth, but he came to the NFL Combine and tested off the charts. Like, literally the best LB ever tested:

RAS scores are a generally well-respected composite of combine measurables

Those long arms (34.625″🤯🤯) allow Smith to keep blockers away from his body where he can control them. Combine that with his impressive vert: he’s a problem in the passing lanes for shorter QB’s like Baker and Russ, and can get a hand in there in coverage at the catch-point (-1 yards allowed on five targets vs. Rutgers in 2021).

Sounds almost too good to be true, and should be alluring to NFL teams looking for a guy who can wear multiple hats over the middle. But Smith projected as a third-round draft pick. Where’s the disconnect?

The bottom line: the NFL sees this kid as a project with a high ceiling. Technical concerns with tackling (17.2% missed tackle rate in 2021, per PFF) and coverage (tight hips when he needs to turn and run) chip away at Smith’s “Week One” value at the next level. He was a true, 21-year-old junior in 2021, so that youth leaves plenty of room to grow.

The Mineral, Virginia-native recorded 14 forced fumbles in high school…in his final two seasons alone(🤯🤯🤯). I’m sure he understands your Derrick Henry’s and Najee Harris’s aren’t gonna go rag doll and cough up the rock like those 180-pound, track star RB’s he used to blow up in high school. A good LB’s coach – a Brian Flores-type, if you will – will get Brandon to be a stickier tackler and not throw that shoulder as much.

The same can be said for Smith’s coverage technique. A coverage-forward defensive scheme (the Steelers’ defensive coordinator was their secondary coach last year) will coach him up there. In my opinion, he’d thrive as an off-ball linebacker in a 3-4 system (like the Steelers play) in which he doesn’t have to be “the guy” in the middle. He has a tendency to play Madden zones and cover “grass instead of manipulated to windows” (credit to Crabbs at the Draft Network for the borrowed phrasing). Playing alongside a veteran MLB (like Myles Jack, just to grasp at a name) will help clean up his use of space.

Brandon’s elite length and athleticism are all the raw tools you can ask for at the ILB position. Whichever team takes a flyer on him is going to get a very good player.

Myles Jack or Myles JAG?

Steelers Twitter exploded last week when they heard the Jaguars made Myles Jack a cap casualty. When they heard the Steelers signed Jack to a two-year contract, the Discord absolutely burned to the ground.

I’ll admit I don’t watch many Jaguars games, but my strongest memory of the guy was how he ran his mouth about the Steelers not respecting them after they knocked us out of the playoffs. He seemed like a gamer, and he played well against us.

The story on him I hear from bloggers and Internet experts is he’s the coverage guy we’ve been searching for since Shazier went down. Awesome, right? You need that guy to slow down the Kelce’s and Andrews’ of the world.

But then I went to Pro Football Focus and grew concerned:

Myles Jack was the worst-graded LB on a scandalized Jaguars team of poorly-graded LB’s

I know, I know, you don’t respect PFF grades. Of course I didn’t stop there, I kept digging. I figured “this guy is essentially Joe Schobert’s replacement, I’ll compare them.” I chose to focus on the coverage stats, because that’s supposedly Jack’s bread-and-butter. Here’s what it looks like:

Comparing coverage stats between Jack and Schobert

I’m aware of the dangers of box score scouting, but this is pretty unanimous. The Passer Rating Against is particularly damning, as is 0 Passes Defensed for Jack. Really, you’re a coverage ace and you didn’t get your hand on one ball?

Some people suggested on Twitter that Jack’s play last year was an aberration brought on by playing for one of the most trainwrecky teams in NFL history (Urban Meyer’s scandal).

These professional athletes all have the newest Studio Beats by Dre, they should be able to block out that noise. Even so, the “exception, not the rule” argument doesn’t hold water. Jack posted a worse Passer Rating Against in 2017 and 2019. He had a higher Reception Allowed % in 2017 and 2020. His Missed Tackle % was higher in 2018 and 2019. At this point, it’s more the rule than the exception.

If you’re one of those “I don’t trust PFF” people, first of all congrats on being so interesting. If you think I didn’t check my sources, you don’t know me at all:

Pro Football Reference apparently uses a different algorithm for calculating yards allowed, but outside of that it’s still pretty unanimous. Both these players were drafted in 2016, and Joe Schobert has exactly twice as many career Pass Break-ups as Jack.

I’m not sure if we’re too high on Jack, or too low on Schobert. Both are probably true. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Steelers weren’t done at ILB, and there’s a decent chance they spend a high draft pick there. Names that come to mind are Nakobe Dean, Leo Chenal, Brandon Smith and Jack Sanborn.

If that were to happen, Devin Bush’s chair would suddenly feel much warmer.