With two less games played than the rest of the field, the NFL’s highest-paid edge rusher is living up to his cashflow.
T.J. Watt is 1st in the NFL in sacks and QB hits, and he’s tied for 1st in tackles for loss, fumble recoveries, and – for you analytics eggheads – Pass Rush Productivity. He leads all other candidates in, well, just about every statistical category. No other candidate leads in more than two categories.
Watt needs one more sack to tie – and 1.5 to break – Michael Strahan’s single-season sack record. T.J. can clear a spot on the mantle for the trophy if he breaks that record this Sunday against the Ravens, a team against which he’s traditionally feasted.
A dark-horse candidate whose name I’ve heard floated is the Cowboys’ Trevon Diggs. The sophomore CB’s 11 interceptions are a lofty pedestal, and Stephon Gilmore won the DPoY award in 2019 on the strength of a six-INT campaign. Here’s why that won’t happen this year:
“You got to know when to hold ’em” Diggs is the third-most targeted defender in the NFL, according to Pro Football Focus. With that many at-bats you’re gonna run into a homer or two; you’re also going to have a lot of ugly strikeouts. No qualifying cornerback (minimum 50% of 679 coverage snaps) has allowed more yards, yards/reception or yards after the catch. “Diggs Island”? Hardly.
Spin the record The NFL is a sacks league. Breaking Strahan’s record would be the defining defensive performance of the 2021 NFL season. 20 years from now those of us who remember 2021 will remember it as the year T.J. Watt broke the sack record, not the year some guy came kind of close to tying the INT record.
Get on the train The one thing that could trump Watt’s record is breaking the single-season INT record. Diggs’ won’t scratch the record of 14 Dick “Night Train” Lane set as a rookie in 1952.
Love the record, love the name, love that he did it as a ROOKIE, and love that it has stood for 69 years.
Steely Cam 