Are Running Backs Worth First-Round Picks?

The Framework

The last time the Steelers drafted a runner in the first round was 2008 (Rashard Mendenhall, Illinois). Let’s say the jury is still out on the players drafted 2018 or sooner. That gives us a solid 10 years of data to analyze (2008-2017).

The Findings

Only 7/20 (35%) of running backs drafted in the first-round signed a new contract with the team that drafted them.

On average, the RB’s studied spent 5.01 years with their drafting team. Their average total career length was 6.2 seasons (adjusted for injury time missed).

Four of these “can’t miss” guys failed to play out their rookie deals.

5/20 (25%) of the RB’s studied are no longer on an NFL roster today. For comparison, 49.5% of non-RB’s drafted in the first round over that span are still active. See below:

The Spin

On average, RB’s taken in the first round play out their rookie contract (four years and a fifth-year option) and are out of the NFL about a season later.

Adrian Peterson (36) is the oldest RB in the NFL, but he wasn’t on a roster until Week 9 when Tennessee gave him a look filling in for the fallen Derrick Henry. The second-oldest RB’s are 31 (Latavius Murray, Carlos Hyde, Rex Burkhead and Brandon Bolden). That’s a lot of years of retirement to financially plan for.

The graph of “player survival rate” shown above is the most damning data. RB’s are about twice as likely as any other position to last less than 10 years in the NFL. Draft any position OTHER than RB, and you double your chances of having a stud who’s still contributing a decade later.

If you’re an NFL team that employs a plug-and-play approach with free agency, you can afford to take a couple swings at bottling thunder with a big-time runner or an electric return specialist. For teams that pride themselves on the draft-and-develop model, first-round picks need to be tent-pole, three-contract guys (Ben Roethlisberger, Cam Heyward, and TJ Watt when he inevitably signs the extension that ensures he retires a Steeler).

I mean no denigration to Najee Harris; I think he’ll be a very solid asset in Pittsburgh for the life of his rookie contract, when available. IMO, the Steelers would have been better off pursuing the DeCastro/Pouncey blueprint, but I’m certainly not complaining about runs like these: